Intelligent, detailed post. Much more substantive than most of the history I read on this era. There are a few more influential factors from this era that deserve consideration: (you may have addressed them in other posts, but I haven't got that far, so forgive me if I'm bringing up redundant material.)
1) the moves that began during the Carter administration era of the late 1970s to abolish state prohibitions on usurious consumer credit card rates, which were finally upheld by a Supreme Court decision. I don't have all the details from memory, and don't have the time to direct you to specific cases, Congressional bills, or the relevant Supreme Court decision. But beginning around 1980, this inaugurated a whole new era of consumer credit, and consumer debt and debt service. Unprecedentedly easy credit, extended to the American public at unprecedentedly high interest rates. Some of the first interstate card issuers were the Savings and Loan institutions that eventually collapsed in the late 1980s, leading to a cascade of Federal bailouts and bankruptcies by both the S&Ls and their private business debtors. The first mass-market consumer credit cards were very often sent unsolicited via mass mailings to residential addresses. The annual rates offered ranged between 14%-18% per annum. Even after the collapse of the S&Ls, commercial banks were offering unsecured credit cards up front or with instant application at around 18%, often with cash loan "checks" attached (featuring a somewhat higher interest rate, often around 23%.) If I recall correctly, this ultra-easy credit situation abated by the late 1990s. But it may have continued into the 2000s. I don't notice that easy preapproved access solicitation nowadays.
2) the oil shock, of course. The ramping up of already strong OPEC pressure that escalated oil prices during the Carter administration. The snafus around energy policy that basically foreclosed the alternative of nuclear power generation in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island reactor crisis (more of a near miss than an actual disaster, but one that was sufficient to marshal the antinuclear power movement to shut down the TMI and stop any planned expansion of nuclear power plants.)
3) the fact that Carter's attempts to rein in Congressional earmarks and carve-outs were met with massive opposition by his own party in Congress, at a level that practically assumed the dimensions of a revolt. The Congressional Democrats were so dominant in both Houses that the domestic spending programs of LBJ's Great Society had degenerated into a huge pork barrel, and no one in either party was interested in cleaning house. Particularly the Democrats, with their supermajoritarian (or nearly so) power in both Houses. They were only roused from their complacency in order to clash with Jimmy Carter over his attempts to establish a modicum of discipline in some domestic spending programs. The Congressional Democrats proved much more amenable to cooperation with Ronald Reagan's spend-and-borrow policy. The first administration to raise the national debt into the trillion-dollar territory.
The best resources I've found on the institutions of American power and their economic and political transformations of the1970s and 1980s:
The Politics of Rich and Poor, by Kevin Phillips
America: What Went Wrong?
America: Who Really Pays The Taxes?
America: Who Stole The Dream? all by Donald Barlett and James B. Steele
All are data-heavy research, featuring some information that I found revelatory. Astounding, really. There's no way to really understand this era without the background provided by those diligent researchers and investigative reporters.
Thank you. Politics of Rich and Poor is on my bookshelf.
I recall the change in interest rate limits. It is part of Carter-era deregulation.
My understanding is the turn against nuclear predates TM!. Utilities canceled plans for nuke plants with rising interest rates earlier in the 1970’s and a steady rise in regulation that drove up costs. Besides the physics of nuclear power means it can never compete with natural gas as long as fracking continues to deliver cheap gas. And if you focus on clean power, it will never compete against solar+battery in places like the US.
As for the third point it is a clear example of how Democrats were incapable of holding their dispensation (this is the political power that establishes and maintains political orders—see link). It is an example of how a dispensation ages.
Had Kennedy done the right thing, drop his tax cut and roll back spending to stop the outflow of gold, he could has then set up the gold reserve as a talisman of responsble governance, creating a third rail around deficit spending outside of recessions, i.e. Thou shalt not fuck with the gold reserve. I speculated on this in this post:
Intelligent, detailed post. Much more substantive than most of the history I read on this era. There are a few more influential factors from this era that deserve consideration: (you may have addressed them in other posts, but I haven't got that far, so forgive me if I'm bringing up redundant material.)
1) the moves that began during the Carter administration era of the late 1970s to abolish state prohibitions on usurious consumer credit card rates, which were finally upheld by a Supreme Court decision. I don't have all the details from memory, and don't have the time to direct you to specific cases, Congressional bills, or the relevant Supreme Court decision. But beginning around 1980, this inaugurated a whole new era of consumer credit, and consumer debt and debt service. Unprecedentedly easy credit, extended to the American public at unprecedentedly high interest rates. Some of the first interstate card issuers were the Savings and Loan institutions that eventually collapsed in the late 1980s, leading to a cascade of Federal bailouts and bankruptcies by both the S&Ls and their private business debtors. The first mass-market consumer credit cards were very often sent unsolicited via mass mailings to residential addresses. The annual rates offered ranged between 14%-18% per annum. Even after the collapse of the S&Ls, commercial banks were offering unsecured credit cards up front or with instant application at around 18%, often with cash loan "checks" attached (featuring a somewhat higher interest rate, often around 23%.) If I recall correctly, this ultra-easy credit situation abated by the late 1990s. But it may have continued into the 2000s. I don't notice that easy preapproved access solicitation nowadays.
2) the oil shock, of course. The ramping up of already strong OPEC pressure that escalated oil prices during the Carter administration. The snafus around energy policy that basically foreclosed the alternative of nuclear power generation in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island reactor crisis (more of a near miss than an actual disaster, but one that was sufficient to marshal the antinuclear power movement to shut down the TMI and stop any planned expansion of nuclear power plants.)
3) the fact that Carter's attempts to rein in Congressional earmarks and carve-outs were met with massive opposition by his own party in Congress, at a level that practically assumed the dimensions of a revolt. The Congressional Democrats were so dominant in both Houses that the domestic spending programs of LBJ's Great Society had degenerated into a huge pork barrel, and no one in either party was interested in cleaning house. Particularly the Democrats, with their supermajoritarian (or nearly so) power in both Houses. They were only roused from their complacency in order to clash with Jimmy Carter over his attempts to establish a modicum of discipline in some domestic spending programs. The Congressional Democrats proved much more amenable to cooperation with Ronald Reagan's spend-and-borrow policy. The first administration to raise the national debt into the trillion-dollar territory.
The best resources I've found on the institutions of American power and their economic and political transformations of the1970s and 1980s:
The Politics of Rich and Poor, by Kevin Phillips
America: What Went Wrong?
America: Who Really Pays The Taxes?
America: Who Stole The Dream? all by Donald Barlett and James B. Steele
All are data-heavy research, featuring some information that I found revelatory. Astounding, really. There's no way to really understand this era without the background provided by those diligent researchers and investigative reporters.
Thank you. Politics of Rich and Poor is on my bookshelf.
I recall the change in interest rate limits. It is part of Carter-era deregulation.
My understanding is the turn against nuclear predates TM!. Utilities canceled plans for nuke plants with rising interest rates earlier in the 1970’s and a steady rise in regulation that drove up costs. Besides the physics of nuclear power means it can never compete with natural gas as long as fracking continues to deliver cheap gas. And if you focus on clean power, it will never compete against solar+battery in places like the US.
As for the third point it is a clear example of how Democrats were incapable of holding their dispensation (this is the political power that establishes and maintains political orders—see link). It is an example of how a dispensation ages.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/my-take-on-the-election#:~:text=I%20have%20been,one%20in%201932.
Had Kennedy done the right thing, drop his tax cut and roll back spending to stop the outflow of gold, he could has then set up the gold reserve as a talisman of responsble governance, creating a third rail around deficit spending outside of recessions, i.e. Thou shalt not fuck with the gold reserve. I speculated on this in this post:
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/what-might-have-been