Introducing Mike’s Substack
Hello, my name is Mike Alexander. I am a retired industrial scientist with an interest in “big history,” particularly concerning the development of the modern American political economy. Over a quarter century, I have acquired an eclectic mix of ideas and analytical tools from a variety of scholars working in a variety of disciplines and used them to understand how the country moves from one historical era to another.
Of particular interest to me is the postwar era when America had an economy that really worked for ordinary people. This period stands out compared to what came before and after. I decided to look into how such an unusual period of widely shared prosperity happened in the first place, why it ended, and what could be done to get something like that to happen again. I wrote a book called America in Crisis describing my findings.
This will be a free substack. I plan to post sporadic articles talking about economic, political, or social topics that involve aspects of my book as a way to promote it. Twenty years ago, I wrote several books on financial and economic cycles and wrote articles on a now defunct financial site to promote them. This substack is an attempt to duplicate this strategy. For example, my first real article will be on a different way to look at inflation and will reference portions of my book where the reader can get more information. I also plan to do an article talking about the possibility of civil war in the US, another topic of discussion recently, which will refer to other portions of the book, and so on.
Another goal is to create a community where some of the ideas from my book may be discussed. In the late 1990’s and early 2000’s I belonged to two lively discussion boards, one about Kondratieff cycles, and the other about Strauss and Howe’s generational cycles. I learned a lot from these boards, particularly the first. I wrote my first book after being encouraged to do so by other posters at that site, and one of them asked me to write for the financial site he ran (the financial site I mentioned above). I enjoyed my experience at these boards and would like to have something like that again.
I just wanted to stop by and tell you how grateful I am for your book Stock Cycles. My father bought me the book back in the early 2000s and I let it sit on the shelf for several years because I thought from the title it had something to do with technical analysis, which I wasn't interested in at the time. When I finally read it circa 2003, it blew my mind. The recognition that the causes of the secular bear and bull cycles alternate between low/high real earnings growth and high/dis-inflation is, in my opinion, one of the most valuable insights any investor could ever have. What's even more incredible is that you wrote the book in 2000 and the patterns have repeated just as you laid out. From 2000-2010-ish, we were in a secular bear driven by low real earnings growth (no earnings in Dotcom bust or GFC). Then from 2010-2021-ish, real earnings growth for the S&P 500 was 23% (including the COVID period) and we had a secular bull. From January 2022 onward it looks as though we have been in a secular bear driven by high inflation: Inflation's been high, stocks are outperforming inflation by only single digit percentages annually since that time (versus double digits annually during secular bulls) and to do so have had to take on the worst valuations of all time. Moreover, the assets one would expect to outperform in a secular bear driven by high inflation--gold, silver, gold miners, bitcoin, energy stocks, etc.--have greatly outperformed the S&P, while those we would expect to underperform--long-duration bonds--have gotten crushed. The fact these cycles tend to last 9-20 years, suggests we have at least until the end of the decade before the current cycle ends (if not mid-2030s). You essentially gave all of us a roadmap to align ourselves with the larger secular forces in play at any given time and what to look for to identify the cycles. Stock Cycles could possibly be the most overlooked, underrated book in all of human history. Thank you for your gift to humanity.
I find Strauss Howe generational theory very interesting and have read both fourth turning books